- Leandro Herrero - https://leandroherrero.com -

Certainty! Or reduced uncertainty! We all can practise it. Not rocket science, just zero cost behavioural science.

Managing uncertainty is something our brain loves to do. And it loves even more  to be helped.

At macro-macro-level, Theories-Of-Everything do the trick. Very elegantly, Nobel Prize (Medicine) Jacques Monod (1910 – 1976) [1], whose Chance and Necessity: Essay on the Natural Philosophy of Modern Biology made a significant impact on me as a young doctor in my 20s, described as ‘mythical ontogenies’ those that explain everything from religious beliefs to Theory of Man.

But, on a small scale, we can see this in every little piece of uncertainty in daily life: the difference a little decrease of that uncertainty can make is not to be ignored. Behavioural Economics, to its credit, understands this very well and creates ‘nudges’ that can, in their own simplicity, travel a million miles between the certainty and uncertainty territory, and, in doing so, decrease our anxiety and tell the brain, it’s ok, relax, it’s not that dark out there.

Here are some examples

Each second part alternative contains that little extra piece of info that tells the brain to stop worrying.

We could construct an entire management system on this basis. The zero cost question is, how can I decrease uncertainty by 10-20-50%? Perhaps 100%, because how much you need that delta reduction and how much I need it, may be very different. In other words, the anti-anxiety effect is not linear, the difference between ‘from flight delayed, to flight delayed by 45 minutes; new update in 10’ may be for me the 100% difference between complete panicking and redirecting my attention to key things with zero anxiety.

In fact, I would go further and say that, delta reduction is far more effective than a full blown ‘I have all the data’. Uncertainty avoidance (a feature described as characteristic of some national cultures) does not require full avoidance, just a dose of decreasing, that magic delta. The pursuit of total uncertainty avoidance is futile. Unless of course you want to use the management equivalent of Monod’s mythical ontogenies (I have an answer for everything, what is the question?): these are all the answers, these are all the Gantt charts, this is what reality will look like on Wednesday 27 in the afternoon. A management practice that comes well below the weather forecast in efficacy. But could also be very effective even if wrong.


The Chalfont Project Academy [2] – these resources are for you!



If you work in change, transformation or culture, whether you are a business leader, HR/OD/Communications professional, or with a remit in people engagement, the resources in our Academy, will take you into the mobilizing world with very practical insights that will be enlightening for everybody.

The Chalfont Project Academy [2] is here to enable us to share our many resources developed through the work of Dr Leandro Herrero and The Chalfont Project, enabling you to gain a greater understanding of topics around large scale change, leadership and organizational design – all based upon our unique approach. Read, watch, absorb, then share, enhance, enlighten the world with what you learn, observe and engage with.

You can take our flagship course: Mobilize! Masterclass [3]Enter the world of organization architecture and acquire a complete blueprint for mobilizing people whether you are working on change, transformation or shaping culture.

Or start with a comprehensive collection of learning resource packages which include videos, webinars, papers and book extracts.

You’ll be able to choose from:

  • Viral Change – The Principles
  • Viral Change – The Key Players
  • Behaviours – Part I
  • Behaviours – Part II
  • The Informal Organization – Part I
  • The Informal Organization – Part II
  • Peer to Peer Influence
  • The Art of Storytelling
  • Leadership Principles – Part I
  • Leadership Principles – Part II
  • Social Movement Principles
  • Designing remarkable organizations


What people are saying…

“I really like the way that this excellent masterclass successfully challenges our traditional approaches to change leadership. The content is both impactful and thought provoking, and there is no doubt in my mind, that Leandro has changed my way of working.”

Philip Watts
Senior Executive Pharma